Best Bets and DFS Plays for The Houston Open

Posted on | by golfheadsadmin

It’s swing season and we are headed to Texas for the Houston Open!

The PGA tour pros will be teeing it up on one of the most played public courses in America that is host to over 60,000 rounds of golf per year. Even though your average 20 handicap plays here, it doesn’t mean it’s going to be an easy course for the likes of some of the best golfers in the world heading to Memorial Park this week.

The Swing Season so far

I’m really excited for this event, this swing season has produced some elite winners at some very interesting courses. The thing that is different about this swing season is that there really haven’t been any long shot winners by random no-name golfers at a price north of 100/1.

Here are your winners and their price since we started at the Fortinet Championship back in the middle of September:

  • Max Homa 60/1
  • Sam Burns 16/1
  • Sungjae Im 33/1
  • Rory Mcllroy 18/1
  • Hideki Matsuyama 14/1
  • Lucas Herbert 80/1
  • Viktor Hovland 16/1

What do all these guys have in common? They are all PGA tour golfers that are proven winners and hold a certain level of pedigree on tour. Let’s forget about Herbert for a second, given it was literally the worst field in quite some time. All these golfers were shorter than 60/1, all of them had won last season other than Sungjae and all were not a crazy long shot! I think that trend is going to continue this week and that is where I want my outright exposure for the upcoming Houston Open.

What could happen in Houston

I talked about the course in my preview that I put out Sunday night but basically what we are dealing with here is a difficult track that is long, has tough par threes, long par fours, and not automatic birdie par fives. This course features fast bermuda grass greens and the fairways are designed to reward long and straight drivers of the ball and the greens are so undulating that they require accurate approach shots that many of which are going to come from distances of over 175 yards.

This is probably my favorite graphic of the week (from @datagolf)

Houston Open

Around the green and approach numbers are MASSIVELY IMPORTANT this week.

What is striking to me is really these around the greens numbers, SG: ARG is usually a stat that holds little importance at PGA tour events, but as you can see from this graphic that will not be the case this week.

The Houston Open Skills Checklist

So to reiterate what are we looking for this week:

  • Golfers that play well in difficult conditions
  • Long and straight drivers of the golf ball
  • Golfers that are trending in their approach numbers
  • Specifically ones that are good from over 175 yards
  • Good scramble game they miss the green

SO LETS GET INTO THE PICKS FOR THIS WEEK!!!!

This Week’s Picks

Scottie Scheffler +1800
Top 10 +250
$10,900 on DK

Has this guy ever won on the PGA Tour before? Nope. Is this golfer literally the slowest player on the PGA tour? Yes. Did he gag a few shorties for birdie on Sunday when he was a few shots off the lead? Yes. Even with all these flaws, Scottie Sheffler was one of the best golfers in majors this year. Dating back to last August here are his results in Majors: 4th at the PGA, 18th at the Masters, 19th at The Masters, 8th at the PGA, 7th at the US Open, and 8th at The Open. Can we take a second to appreciate just how unbelievably good this is from Scottie!!!!

What do majors require: long accurate drives, par saves, avoiding bogeys, good with long irons. These are things I’m looking for this week! I have always liked Scottie in difficult conditions and his performance last week in a birdie fest gives me even more hope that he can win the Houston Open this week in his home state of Texas! I really can see Scottie winning his first PGA Tour event this season at Memorial Park in what I expect to be an excellent start to an even better season.

Adam Scott +3600
+320 Top 10
$9,600 on DK

My next play this week is going to be a golfer that not only has one of the best-looking swings on tour but is also the best-looking dude on tour. Masters Champion, Adam Scott. Once I started looking at some stats on approach over 175, scoring on long par threes, trending tee to green numbers, I instantly knew Adam Scott would be a play this week. Yes, Scott did gag a 4 footer to win the Wyndham back in August but that was only to fulfill PGA Tout’s outright guarantee on Kisner. Scott obviously performed well that week, and he backed it up with a T5 just four weeks ago at the CJ Cup. I can’t get that image of him flushing a long iron out of the bunker to set up a tap in eagle that week. Scott ranks 3rd in approach, 3rd in bogey avoidance, 6th in approach 200+ all over the past 24 rounds. The only thing that really concerns me is his putting on Bermuda, which really isn’t his best surface but I’m willing to overlook that and back Scott at +3600 outright, +320 top 10, and +150 for a top 20. Another reason I like Scott this week is that I’m getting a big non-American vibe this week, just looking at last year’s leaderboard I feel like this course suits Europeans and I guess Australians. I know my good friend Andy Lack has a similar feel and I’m glad we are aligned.

Patrick Reed +4500
Top 20 +200
$9,000 on DK

I’m not usually a “bet the number” guy and what that means is that I’m not just going to blindly bet an elite golfer whose odds have drifted higher than usual solely for that reason. In almost every case, their odds drift for good reason! They are usually out of form for an elongated period of time and yeah sometimes people win on an odds drift i.e Brooks at Waste Management, Tony at Northern Trust but it doesn’t happen THAT often. Well, this week I think its a time to buy this odds drift on Patrick Reed. 45/1 is just a crazy number on a Major winner that is one start removed from a second-place finish on a tough track that produced a winning score of -15. Want a guy that is good around the greens? Patrick Reed. Want a guy that excels in tough conditions? Patrick Reed. Look if he didn’t finish T2 at Bermuda I probably wouldn’t get there but the fact that he has shown promising recent form and is coming to a difficult course and is at 45/1 and +200 for a top 20, yeah I’m down. I REALLY like +200 for a top 20, go on to your book and bet it, double your money, and thank me on Sunday when it cashes.

Seamus Power +4500
Top 20 +200
$8,400 on DK

Huge fan of Powers’ golf game recently and I believe that he is currently one of the most underrated and overlooked players on tour right now. The man has eight top 20s in his last 12 starts on the PGA tour, which includes a win at the Barbosol last July. It’s no secret that I love top 20 bets and so someone that cashes them at a 66% rate is someone I’m always going to consider. Power is a guy who consistently gains strokes putting on Bermuda, gains the most strokes in difficult scoring conditions, and like I pointed out has just been playing some stellar golf as of late. I do wish had some major results from him but I still think that can contend this week in Houston. Accurate off the tee, excellent on approach, and good putter on Bermuda, Seamus is just not someone I want to hop off anytime soon as he has been a profitable top 20, matchup, and DFS play for quite some time and I like him to contend in Texas.

The Official Card

These are my favorite plays and the ones that I will have the most betting exposure to as we head into Houston.

I always recommend placing finishing position bets on the guys that you like and bet outright because it is a great way to remain profitable even you don’t hit an outright.

At the end of the day, we are really trying to just figure out who is going to perform well this upcoming week. If you are good at this and put in the research it gets easier to predict cashing a nice +200 top 20 on someone you thought would have a good week and is a nice return to cover the outright exposure.

  • Scottie Scheffler +1800
  • Adam Scott +3600
  • Patrick Reed +4500
  • Seamus Power +4500

If you have made it this far I really appreciate it and am very excited to be putting out more written content for you in the upcoming months!